September winners could forecast upset on November Election Day
By JOSH RESNEK
Is it possible the mayor could be defeated in the primary? Yes, it is.
How? This is the $150,000 question.
How could the mayor possibly lose the primary? Impossible, you say. Unlikely, you say.
Here is what a number of Everett’s political experts have suggested.
The primary in September may have the effect of an election, some of them claim.
The election for mayor might very well be over for the mayor when the primary winners have been named following the vote count.
I wrote about this last week detailing the complications that are caused by two candidates facing the mayor instead of one in a hotly contested primary.
For the twelve-year heavyweight champion of the corner office, one opponent is a no-brainer.
Two candidates are problematic for the mayor, for any mayor seeking re-election.
First off, the primary is not the election.
Voter interest in a September primary is never as high as it is in the finale, the November election.
The mayor’s voting demographic is so used to him winning elections that they tend not to come out in sufficient numbers in the primary.
This is how many of the mayor’s voters might tend to articulate this.
“I’m not coming out in the primary to vote for Carlo. He’s gonna win the election anyway. Why bother with the primary. Doesn’t matter.”
“I’ll vote for him on Election Day.”
With three aggressive candidates, the primary is likely to matter more than the election itself.
None of the three candidates, primary among them the mayor, can afford for their voters to have such a cavalier attitude about voting in the primary or not voting in the primary.
Then there is the possibility of the mayor winning a place in the primary only to lose the November election.
In communities across the Commonwealth, this happens all the time.
Another nuance in voting is about who appeals to whom?
Will women flock to the polls to vote for the mayor with his record on sexual harassment?
Will women vote for Capone. He is free of sexual harassment allegations and allegations of municipal fraud. He attends church on Sundays. He prefers eating at home with his wife and family. No fancy restaurants for Capone. No eating with developers and being treated. He wouldn’t stand for it. Capone has made his own money as a lawyer.
The mayor prefers $125 steaks and the $200 tower and the company of developers and close friends who depend on him for a variety of reasons while being treated at $1,000 dinners at Abe and Louie’s. This is the same mayor who has had to close donut shops given to him because he didn’t know how to run them.
Adrien runs a successful small business with her husband. She’s a church-goer. She’s a success story. She is a proud Black woman facing the mayor’s all-white mentality and policies geared to friends and friends of friends.
Will Everett’s women all vote for Carlo? Is that the way it is going to go?
That is doubtful.
The mayor will get the votes of some Everett women in the primary, but it will be a diminished vote because of Capone and Adrien drawing votes away from the mayor’s traditional voting demographic.
Who will the elderly vote for?
Who will the disadvantaged vote for?
Who will the Blacks and browns vote for?
They will vote for all three to varying degrees.
This will make a clear win by any of the candidates that much more difficult in the primary.
All three will betaking votes away from one another.
This makes a victory in the primary hardest for the mayor, despite him serving as mayor for the past twelve years.
Why? Because he has more votes to lose than those facing him.
After twelve years, the mayors had his time.
Many people feel he has been mayor long enough, that someone else should be given a shot at running the city.
Many Everett people believe it is time for the mayor to step aside, especially city employees who are made to contribute handsomely to the mayor’s campaign account in return for those city employees keeping their jobs.
Bottom line, the mayor needs to get a big vote out on Primary Day. This will be made immensely more difficult than usual for him because two mayoral candi- datesaredrawingoutavote for themselves.
The execution of voter identification and bringing out that vote is of importance to all three candidates for mayor equally.
In the two against one Primary Day voting day scenario, the mayor is the odd man out.
The mayor does not know all the voters who are going to be organized, registered, and brought out to vote on Primary Day by Adrien and Capone.
There could be as many as several thousand new voters. Those voters he doesn’t know who don’t know him are what he needs to watch out for.
A three-candidate race is not to the mayor’s advantage this time around.
Beware of the primary!