If everyone registered to vote here came out on Primary Day, 23,000 votes would be cast.
City Clerk Sergio Cornelio has estimated the September Primary Day vote to be 5,200 at largest.
If it rains, that vote will shrink just a bit.
Without a governor’s or presidential race, Primary Day voting numbers are destined to be terrible.
There is no big upside to this vote for any of the candidates running for mayor.
This includes the mayor, especially.
The trick for everyone running for mayor this time around is to get out their vote. This is to say, everyone running has a base. That base must be unified and that base must be reached and everyone must come out on Primary Day.
How will Primary Day end up on September 21?
With three candidates there are essentially three separate but equal races.
To a greater degree than any of us like to believe, the voting list this year is different from two years ago.
It is vastly different from four years ago. How?
There are fewer than ever before Irish and Italian voters living in the city.
There are more Haitian, Black, Brown, Hispanic, Brazilian and Asian voters than ever before.
Those groups of voters dominate the voter list the way Irish and Italian voters dominated the list for decades before.
What does this portend? In other words, what does this voter list do that voters’ lists in the past didn’t do? How will it effect the outcome of the Primary and a few weeks later, the election in November?
More than in any election that has come before, this election represents the likely rising up of the city’s immigrant voting population.
We believe Blacks, Browns, Hispanics, Brazilians, Asians and the non-white population largely is going to vote for Gerly Adrien.
Adrien is in the right place, at the right time. She should reap the benefits of such exquisite timing.
Fred Capone will naturally take votes away from the mayor’s base, this time around. This means Capone’s vote will be nearly all white Italian and remaining Irish and a smattering of others. How many votes will he take away from the mayor?
If he takes 800 away, the effort is made more difficult for the mayor as Capone has a lot mEvery street in every ward in every precinct is dramatically different from four yeore than 800 Italian and Irish voters who will choose him over the mayor.
None of this bodes well for the mayor.
Let’s face it, Capone takes votes away from the mayor. In a smaller vote as is being predicted, Capone’s takeaways could be disastrous for the mayor when added to Adrien’s take aways.
The city’s voter list is not lying. You read through it and tells you a story about the changing times in this city.
Every street in every ward in every precinct is dramatically different from four years ago.
For the possible outcome on September 21, we refer you to the voter list.